Ryan Burge has become one of the best know and most active demographers of American religion and politics. Burge is a faculty member of Eastern Illinois University. Through his substack @ryanburge, Burge sends out twice weekly, informative posts on statistical insights on American religion and politics.
Through our project to do a census and survey of the some 10,000 congregations of churches of Christ across America I have enjoyed the opportunity to visit with Ryan and glean from his experience on doing polling and survey work. Recently, the CRC project team met with Ryan for a time of information, encouragement, and reflection. I’ll be getting the recording put together in the next few weeks, but in the meantime, here is the summary of our time with Ryan:
The 3 most momentous changes in American Christianity are:
- The rise of the Nones, those not affiliating with any religious group. While this has been growing exponentially so far this century, there is evidence it may be peaking.
- The rise of the Nons, the non-denominational churches. This groups is hard to gather data on since they are unaffiliated, but they are now the second largest grouping of churches following evangelicals.
- The decline of the mainline denominations. In the 1950s, 52% of Americans claimed mainline identification. Today that is 9%. The mainline churches are all but gone. Ryan quoted Ernest Hemingway on how he went broke, “It happened slowly, then all at once.” That is the mainline story and could be the story of others too.
On our census/survey project:
- Overcome the laziness factor. It takes motivation to help people to answer a survey.
- Personal connections are golden. When people feel there is a personal relationship at stake they are more likely to answer.
- Pay attention to those not responding, who may be small, rural, no paid minister, and ethnic. They already feel disenfranchised. Helping them answer will help them feel noticed and included, but they will need extra attention.
- Keep on surveying! Surveying, or polling, is the only way to break through the bubble of personal situation and intuition in order to see what may be the more realistic facts. Ryan is stoked about our project.
Miscellaneous:
- The term “evangelical” has morphed from a religious identification to a political one. Evangelicals = Republican today.
- The liquid gold of social media is cynicism. The social media generation is highly cynical because of their SM influence.
- We’ve yet to see 3rd generation Nones in America. The natural rebellion of youth may show itself as children of 2nd generation Nones rebel and move towards more demanding religious experiences. Watch for it.
We are grateful to Ryan for being an external advisor to us on our Count Us In! project and for spending time to fill our cups with his good insights.
